Monthly Archives: October 2017

10 Oct 2017

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Michael Lamonato

Michael Lamonato

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Episode 16 (2017) – Japanese Grand Prix

Episode 16 of the 2017 Strategy Podcast: by Apex Race Manager provides insight & analysis of strategic decisions made during the 2017 Japanese Grand Prix.

Our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Abhishek Takle – F1 Journalist.

Our guest Abhishek Takle - F1 Journalist
Our guest Abhishek Takle – F1 Journalist

If you like the podcast, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

For full written report about the strategy plays in this race, and detailed data (including all the stints and tyre choices) click here. All of our previous F1 Strategy Report Podcasts are here.

APEX Race Manager – it’s out now on iOS & Android.

Contact us on twitter @strategyreport.

Japanese Grand Prix 2017

10 Oct 2017

Race 16 – 53 Laps – 5.807km per lap – 307.471km race distance – low tyre wear

Japanese GP F1 Strategy Report Podcast – our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Abhishek Takle – F1 Journalist.

THE OUTLOOK

September and October 2017 will be remembered as the nadir of Ferrari’s season. At the beginning of September Sebastian Vettel led the drivers standings by seven points; after the Japanese Grand Prix in early October he trails Lewis Hamilton by 58 — a 66-point turnaround. Ferrari is almost certain to lose the constructors title at the next round in the United States, and Hamilton is likely to be crowned a four-time world champion by the Mexican Grand Prix on 29 October.

This was the story of the 2017 Japanese Grand Prix, but in truth Vettel’s retirement had little effect on the race itself. Hamilton’s afternoon was a cruise barring a handful of laps at the end when apparent engine troubles made him vulnerable to Max Verstappen, and the frontrunning teams again proved impervious to the midfield in what was a staid and generally straightforward grand prix.Japan3-2000

PRE-RACE EXPECTATIONS

Just as in Malaysian Grand Prix, washed-out practice on Friday meant teams had less long-run data to choose strategy. The soft and supersoft tyres also carried over from Malaysia with a similar 0.7-second pace differential.

Unlike Malaysia, however, incomplete Friday testing data suggested this wouldn’t be an easy one-stop race. Suzuka competes with Spa as one of the hardest track on tyres, putting maximum life for the supersoft at around 20 laps and the soft between 30 and 35 laps. This didn’t transpire, however, and the fastest route to the flag proved to be a one-stop race because two-stop drivers would find themselves stuck in traffic on the difficult-to-pass circuit.

THE RACE

ONE-STOP WINS THE DAY

Some teams nonetheless flirted with a second stop, and Felipe Massa’s lap-17 stop had all the hallmarks of a two-stop strategy. After spending time fighting Kimi Räikkönen on the soft tyre — more on that later — Massa engaged in a battle with Hülkenberg, who was also on the harder compound. From lap 14 they sparred until Williams pulled the trigger to stop on lap 17, bang in Pirelli’s estimated two-stop window.

This would undo Massa’s race, however, as it quickly became obvious none of the other supersoft starters were doing likewise, giving the Brazilian a 35-lap stint on the softs to end the race. He kept ahead of the Haas cars after the stops — they and Hülkenberg were Massa’s principal race rivals — but his pace on the soft tyre, particularly late in the race, simply didn’t cut it, and he was passed by both in a gutsy move spearheaded by Magnussen on lap 42.Felipe

THE IMPORTANCE OF RACING YOUR OWN RACE

Kimi Räikkönen encountered two types of midfield opponent as he charged through the field on his contrastrategy: those who moved out of the way knowing they weren’t in his race and those who became embroiled in the battle.

Nico Hülkenberg was the first type. The German moved out of the Ferrari’s path twice — before and after Räikkönen’s stop — which allowed him to maximise his own race pace. Felipe Massa, however, was the second type, and not only did this slow Räikkönen’s progress, it also played a part in undermining Massa’s own grand prix.

The Williams driver lost bundles of time in defence of a position he was never going to keep, and the knock-on effect was that he wasn’t as far up the road as he could have been at his first pit stop and was therefore more vulnerable to the Haas cars towards the race’s end.

This difference in approach was set to come to a head when Hülkenberg made his pit stop on lap 38. The Renault driver exited the pits just behind the battle the Haas cars’ battle with Massa, and on the supersoft tyre and in a faster car he should’ve been able to pass all three — had DRS failure not forced his retirement one lap later, of course.

A VARIETY OF STRATEGIES, NONE OF WHICH WERE VERY SUCCESSFUL

Other cars did execute two-stop-plus races, though all were unsuccessful.

Pascal Wehrlein attempted Sauber’s renowned ‘no-stop’ strategy behind the safety car by switching his opening-stint soft tyres for supersofts on lap two and switching back to softs on lap three with the intention of making it to the end. By lap 35 he had to switch to a set of used softs. He finished last.

Stoffel Vandoorne set himself up for a two-stop race by switching from supersofts to softs on lap nine, forcing another switch on lap 34. He finished second last.

Pierre Gasly stopped for new softs on lap 22, which should have been a long enough first stint to see him through to the end of the race. However, his inexperience managing the tyres in just his second race showed, and a lock-up during his second stint was bad enough to require that second stop, which left him P13. Had he been able to finish his second stint, he could have competed for the final point of the race.Japan4-2000

BUT THE TOP SIX REMAINS IMPENETRABLE

Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Räikkönen both drove impressive recovery drives on the alternative soft-supersoft strategy after both took five-place grid penalties, but this was down to pure pace more than strategic genius. As Sebastian Vettel did in Malaysia, Bottas and Räikkönen — fifth and 14th after the start — demonstrated that Formula One has become a two-tiered sport in which Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull Racing are unreachable in ordinary circumstances. One gets the sense that the result for the two Finns would have been similar regardless of the strategy employed.Japan2-2000

HONOURABLE MENTION: FERNANDO ALONSO

McLaren-Honda’s relationship will end this season without having scored a point at Honda’s home race, though Alonso raced hard for 10th place before falling less than a second short. Alonso did so without any strategic aids — his pit stop was well timed and he was fortuitous in that some of his midfield rivals pit out of his way, but simply he was at home in his car and on these tyres at this track, competing on merit with Williams for the final point.

Michael Lamonato @MichaelLamonato

ESSENTIAL STATS

Pole position: Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes — 1:27.319 Winner: Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes — 1:27:31.194 Strategy: One stop — supersoft-soft Fastest lap: Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes — 1:33.144

LONGEST STINTS

Supersoft: Ricciardo, Raikkonen, Alonso (25 laps)
Soft: Palmer (39 laps)

RACE DATA

Thanks to Pirelli Motorsport

Pirelli1 Pirelli2

STINTS BY DRIVER

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

 

 

R01 R04 R07 R40 R45

16-japan-lap-chart

3 Oct 2017

With

Michael Lamonato

Michael Lamonato

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Episode 15 (2017) – Malaysia Grand Prix

Episode 15 of the 2017 Strategy Podcast: by Apex Race Manager provides insight & analysis of strategic decisions made during the 2017 Malaysia Grand Prix.

Our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Nate Saunders from ESPNF1.

Our guest Nate Saunders from ESPNF1
Our guest Nate Saunders from ESPNF1

If you like the podcast, leave us a review on Apple Podcasts.

For full written report about the strategy plays in this race, and detailed data (including all the stints and tyre choices) click here. All of our previous F1 Strategy Report Podcasts are here.

APEX Race Manager – it’s out now on iOS & Android.

Contact us on twitter @strategyreport.

Malaysia Grand Prix 2017

3 Oct 2017

Race 15 – 56 Laps – 5.543km per lap – 310.408km race distance – low tyre wear

Malaysia GP F1 Strategy Report Podcast – our host Michael Lamonato is joined by Nate Saunders from ESPNF1..

THE OUTLOOK

The wheels appeared to be falling off Sebastian Vettel’s championship campaign in Malaysia, where a power unit problem in qualifying prevented him from setting a time, forcing him to start from the back of the grid.

Vettel needed to ensure Hamilton didn’t outscore him by more than seven points to maintain a realistic shot at the title, and a stunning recovery drive to fourth, plus Lewis Hamilton’s second-place finish behind Max Verstappen, guaranteed just that.

Malysia8-2000

PRE-RACE EXPECTATIONS

With little long-run data collected through two truncated Friday practice sessions, the principal factor in tyre strategy would be temperature. If the track were too hot, the supersoft tyre, worth around 0.7 seconds per lap over the soft, would overheat, shortening is useful life and limiting its pace. As it transpired, however, track temperatures on Sunday, after heavy rain in the hours before the race, remained below 40°C, enticing teams into one-stop races.

THE RACE

VERSTAPPEN MAKES THE DECISIVE OVERTAKE, BOTTAS BOTTLES RICCIARDO

Despite substantially improving its pace between practice and qualifying, Mercedes remained the third-quickest car on Sunday, and Max Verstappen wasted no time slicing past Hamilton on lap four, claiming the lead that would deliver him victory.

Hamilton opted not to fight too hard, recognising not only that his car wasn’t up to the challenge but also that he needed to score points only against Vettel.

In this regard Bottas, though painfully off the pace, played a solid team game nonetheless for Hamilton by keeping Ricciardo bottled behind him for nine laps, after which the Australian was too far behind the Briton to attempt to challenge for second place.

Though this was the podium order — Verstappen-Hamilton-Ricciardo — the battle for third went down to the wire.

Malysia7-2000

VETTEL’S CONTRA-STRATEGY

Sebastian Vettel, with nothing to lose from last on the grid, started the race on the soft tyre, meaning he would be on the supersoft tyre when his rivals were on softs at the end of the race, giving him a pace advantage. With minimal degradation on the day, having a lighter car in the second stint meant he was getting an extra two second of pace out of the supersoft tyre compared to those who used it in the first stint.

The first stint worked a treat for Ferrari, with Vettel up to fifth by lap 21 thanks in part to decisive passes and midfield cars pitting early. Now behind Bottas, Ferrari opted to use the undercut, shortening the first stint but avoiding the need to waste time overtaking.

Daniel Ricciardo made his stop on lap 30 — he was the last frontrunner to do so — after which 14 seconds separated him from Vettel. The Australian was reeled in at around one second per lap, and the pair sparred until lap 49, when the aggressive driving finally took its toll on Vettel’s tyres, forcing him to accept fourth place.

Was it the optimum strategy? Arguably Vettel should have run a longer first stint on the softs — Esteban Ocon got 53 laps out of the yellow tyre — but he would have had to pass Bottas, after which Bottas could have himself deployed the undercut and forced Vettel to pass him a second time.

The only thorn in Vettel’s side was Fernando Alonso, who held him up between laps three and nine, costing him around one second per lap. Perhaps with a bit of extra tyre life Vettel would have been able to slice past Bottas and out of undercut range in the pit stop window.

Malysia1-2000
ESTEBAN OCON DOES A SERGIO PEREZ

This was a strong drive from Esteban Ocon, coming from last on lap three to P10 in a closely matched midfield.

Switching from the supersoft to the soft on lap three and expecting to make it to the end was bold, and though the soft is perhaps the season’s most versatile tyre, Ocon’s Perez-esque conservation drive mustn’t be discounted. Hülkenberg attempted a similar strategy from lap nine but found none of the pace, ultimately pitting a race-destroying second time on lap 50.

BUT PEREZ MAKES HIS OWN WAY

Sergio Perez, however, didn’t even need to worry about the midfield, jumping two places to sixth on the first lap. This enabled him to go long on his first stint without getting caught up in traffic — Fernando Alonso, for example, attempted the same strategy, but he lost 20 seconds relative to Perez during the first stint cutting through the midfield, meaning his stop dropped him straight back into the action. Perez, however, having built a big enough gap to the midfield before his stop, lost no places for his tyre change, securing him a commendable sixth place.

Malysia6-2000

WILLIAMS PLAYS FAIR, LOSES

Williams drivers Lance Stroll and Felipe Massa finished strongly in eight and ninth, but the pair were almost 10 seconds behind McLaren’s Stoffel Vandoorne at the chequered flag having accidentally allowed him past on lap 13.

Stroll led Massa before the pit stops after jumping him at the start, but it was Massa who was stopped first when the team became spooked that Kevin Magnussen was in undercut range when the Dane made his sole tyre change.

The result was that Massa ended up ahead of Stroll, so the team attempted to switch the pair back for the sake of fairness — but as they engineered the swap, Vandoorne charged out of the pits and jumped both, earning himself his second seventh-place finish but losing Williams a potential extra four points.

Malysia2-2000

Michael Lamonato @MichaelLamonato

ESSENTIAL STATS

Pole position: Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes
Winner: Max Verstappen, Red Bull
Strategy: One stop — supersoft-soft
Fastest lap: Sebastian Vettel, Scuderia Ferrari — 1:34.080

LONGEST STINTS

Supersoft: Perez (30 laps)
Soft: Ocon (53 laps)

Pirelli2 Pirelli1

STINTS BY DRIVER

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

 

R01 R02

15-malaysia-lap-chart